Similar to the last trade, Crude oil was continuing and with our analysis it indicated that it was going to reach our target of $80.
This was the second crude oil long position in quick succession, building directly on the conviction established in the first trade.
The geopolitical picture hadn’t changed (if anything, it had intensified). The war in Iran was escalating, oil reserves were already at low levels heading into the conflict, and the Strait of Hormuz remained a critical pressure point.
As I put it at the time: if the US was unable to take control of the Strait, the strain on global oil supplies could send prices to levels not seen before.
With the fundamental thesis still firmly intact and oil continuing to rise, the analysis pointed clearly toward $80 per barrel as the next target.
I acknowledged the risk from the outset, reminding the community to take profits and size appropriately given that the trajectory of oil could shift quickly in a wartime environment.

